SOMETHING
Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.
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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.
They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
Quarterback
Caleb Williams (USC – DK $9,900, FD $12,800) – The reigning Heisman Trophy winner looks to start off his repeat campaign in style, as the USC offense has the highest implied team total of the slate at nearly 50 points. While he did lose his top receiver from last season (Jordan Addison), the USC wide receiver corps is still among the deepest in the nation, and the San Jose State defense is expected to take a pretty severe step backward this year (94th nationally in returning defensive production). With pricing being soft on this slate, it is quite easy to prioritize spending your salary at QB, as Williams provides a straightforward path to winning the position by 10+ points. Last year, Caleb hit 30+ fantasy points in 10 of 14 games, while going over 40 four different times — which is just absurd consistency and upside. For cash games and single entry, Caleb basically comes preloaded into the QB1 slot of your lineup, where finding an alternate option for ceiling is a challenge.
Diego Pavia (NMSU – DK $7,400, FD $7,700) – If there is one guy who can challenge Caleb Williams‘ ceiling, it is pretty shocking that we are asking a New Mexico State quarterback to rise to the occasion. However, Pavia is a really good and willing runner who amassed over 500 yards and six TDs last season while not even playing every game as a starter. Really the key thing here is that UMass is likely the worst team in FBS and is terrible on both sides of the ball. This will be the only game all season for NMSU where they are 7+ point favorites, which sets up a great spot for Pavia. While his passing numbers last season were not pretty, he was clearly better throwing in the second half of the season, as he put up over 700 yards and nine passing touchdowns (with only one pick) over his final three games. We may not be able to fully justify Pavia in cash games on DK given the other options, but he is extremely underpriced on FD.
Hank Bachmeier (LT – DK $5,800, FD $9,500) – The Boise State transfer has found a new home, moving cross-country to team up with HC Sonny Cumbie to take charge of the La Tech air raid offense. Last season they averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game despite a rotating cast of characters throwing passes. The combination of now having a stable veteran college quarterback (just don’t watch Boise State tape from the last two seasons) and La Tech likely being down their top two running backs (Tyre Shelton may give it a good but is limited by all accounts) in the opener should result in a lot of dropbacks. While Bachmeier is most definitely a pocket passer with extremely limited mobility, he has a path to 3+ touchdowns and the 300 passing-yard bonus — so considering his price, his ceiling is quite solid, especially on DK. In any lineup I play Bachmeier, I will have at least one of his main two receivers (Smoke Harris and Cyrus Allen), as their target share should be quite consolidated relative to other teams on the slate.
Running Back
Sieh Bangura (OHIO – DK $7,200, FD $8,700) – The San Diego State defense has really fallen off a cliff from where it was three years ago, so we need to mentally adjust our willingness to play guys against them a bit (ninth in defensive SP+ in 2021, 34th in 2022, and now projected to be in the mid-50s this season). Bangura was a pure volume eater last season, going over 20 carries in six of his last seven games. This offense returns the same cast across the skill positions, so we have a really solid baseline of how playing time is likely to shake out. The one point of concern that I do have is that O’Shaan Allison being back healthy could siphon off a bit of volume, but that is to be seen and Bangura is just clearly more talented. While the price tag is a tad prohibitive on both sites, Bangura is certainly in play in all formats.
Shomari Lawrence (FIU – DK $6,200, FD $6,800) – FIU suffered a big loss this spring when Lexington Joseph tore his ACL, an event that catapulted Lawrence up to the top spot at RB on the depth chart. Coming from South Dakota University where he had a modest 107/597/3 stat line last year, Lawrence provides the Golden Panthers with a much-needed big body in their backfield. This matchup is interesting because La Tech was absolutely dreadful against the run all last season, allowing 243 yards per game (130th of 131 teams). We have their defense improving a bit this season, but they are still very much a bottom-tier unit in all of FBS. There’s some uncertainty here with workload and he is not a proven commodity at this level of play, but he’s an intriguing play nonetheless that fits the $6K price range on both sites.
Charvis Thornton (LT – DK $5,400, FD $6,400) – With Marquis Crosby likely out for a couple of games to start the season and Miami-OH transfer Tyre Shelton likely to be at the very least limited, the Bulldogs are down to their third-string running back. Thornton actually got some decent playing time last year and was quite efficient (80 carries for 464 yards and three TDs), which gives him a solid outlook versus a soft FIU rush defense that allowed 192 yards per game on the ground last year (any improvement this season will be marginal). According to coaches, freshman Keith Willis is behind Thornton and should see some run, but there were concerns about him being up to speed on pass protection, so he may be limited to running downs. Keldric Moody and Jacob Fields are in the mix as well, but it does not seem like they are guys the coaches are thrilled to get on the field for live action. We are very likely to see Thornton play 60-70%+ of offensive snaps, with upside to play considerably more, as he is the only proven player at the position who is fully healthy.
Tylan Hines (HAW – DK $4,700, FD $5,900) – With RB Dedrick Parson moving on from the program, it is officially the Tylan Hines Show for the Rainbow Warriors this season. The sophomore is absolutely electric and extremely versatile. He put up 7.6 yards per carry last season on 83 attempts including an 8/75/1 performance at the Big House versus No. 4-ranked Michigan (in a 46-point loss). While Hawaii is likely to be facing a negative game script, that does not worry me with Hines, as he is likely to see snaps out of the slot as well. Timmy Chang’s Run N Shoot offense has struggled over the last year, but one thing they have not had an issue with is getting the ball in the hands of their primary running back. Parson averaged nearly 17 touches per game and that was with Hines breathing down his neck all year. If Hines was priced a bit higher we might have a decision to make on this slate, but at under $5K on DK and $6K on FD, he is one of the best plays on the slate even with his team being a considerable underdog versus Vanderbilt.
Sedrick Alexander (VAN – DK $3,700) – The Vanderbilt running back spot has a prime matchup versus Hawaii, but the biggest issue is that we think four RBs will get work and it’s not quite clear how the pecking order will go. It’s also further complicated because it seems the young guys (Alexander and A.J. Newberry) appear to be more explosive and are garnering more hype than the veterans (Patrick Smith and Chase Gillespie). Alexander has the best combination of talent and price of the group and really has a chance to be the lead back (whereas Newberry does not). I rank the group as Alexander > Smith > Gillespie > Newberry on DK and on FD they are more irrelevant as a whole due to several other underpriced options that have much better projectable volume.
Wide Receiver
Tyrin Smith (UTEP – FD $9,000) – Tyrin hit the portal for Texas A&M only to reverse his decision after the Spring semester and return to UTEP, much to the delight of incumbent quarterback Gavin Hardison. Smith was absolutely loaded up with targets last season, averaging 10.8 per game with a season-long team target share north of 34%. In a soft matchup versus FBS newcomer Jacksonville State (which allowed 54 points to Tulsa last year in their only FBS game), we should be ready to fire up Tyrin on FanDuel where there are plenty of underpriced options at each position to justify a few spends in your lineups.
Dorian Singer (USC – DK $7,700, FD $9,800) – The Arizona transfer finally gets a chance to shine with a stable presence under center, as he looks to be Caleb Williams’ new WR1. Systematically, there is some cause for concern with just how many bodies figure to get rotated through at WR for the Trojans. However, Singer was a huge get in the transfer portal, and playing out wide provides a cleaner path for consistent snaps. At these price tags, he would just be a luxury to include in your lineup on most slates, but with the soft pricing, you don’t have to sacrifice much to fit him. There is some uncertainty with his volume, but his upside in this offense cannot be denied.
Sam Wiglusz (OHIO – DK $7,100, FD $7,800) – Ohio returns their top three pass catchers from last season in Wiglusz (7.1 targets per game), Miles Cross (4.9 targets per game), and Jacoby Jones (4.4 targets per game) — so we have a solid baseline of data to help establish expectations. Wiggy profiles to be WR1 in this offense, especially with Kurtis Rourke back at QB (coming off an ACL injury) who seems to lock in and pepper the slot. In the three games where C.J. Harris started, Wiggy only saw 3, 5, and 6 targets, which deflated his overall numbers. I’m really high on the Rourke-Wiglusz connection in the opener, but it is a stack I may end up exploring more in tournament lineups.
Smoke Harris (LT – DK $6,600, FD $8,700) – While Harris may not be the highest-upside receiver (laughable aDOT of 4.5 yards), he should get peppered with targets out of the slot and provide us with an extremely high floor. Also, the La Tech offense is in a great spot, so he is a natural pairing with QB Hank Bachmeier where we can definitely stomach his fair price tag in all formats. Smoke does have a little bit of an issue with the dropsies (13.2% drop rate — YIKES), but given the role and matchup, we can easily overlook any shortcomings.
Brenden Rice (USC – DK $6,200, FD $7,300) – The son of Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice is a solid 6-foot-3, 210-pounder who will look to build on his six-catch, 174-yard, two-touchdown Cotton Bowl performance to close out last season. While I do like the talent and pedigree of Rice, it’s more so that we prefer the outside WRs for USC (Singer and Rice) because the competition for snaps is much less fierce. The slot is absolutely loaded with Mario Williams and Tahj Washington (who has a nagging injury) fighting off five-star Zachariah Branch and converted RB Raleek Brown. If you are looking for a USC pass catcher to pair with Caleb and you can’t quite get up to Singer, Rice is a perfectly reasonable consolation prize on either site.
**Update: USC finally released their depth chart and Kyron Hudson is showing as WR-1A to Rice’s 1B at one of the outside WR positions. This likely means much more rotation than we initially expected, knocking Rice down to a tournament-only consideration.**
Cyrus Allen (LT – DK $5,700, FD $7,400) – With the departure of Tre Harris, Allen figures to get the first crack at the full-time role out wide, where he presents immense upside (aDOT of 17.4 yards last season). Allen will almost certainly beat out Smoke in terms of touchdowns this year (assuming they both stay healthy), but he will come with more volatility, as his targets are coming much further downfield. Seeing that he is only a sophomore, we could see (hopefully) an improvement on his 46% catch rate, and he will certainly see more volume. Of the two La Tech wideouts, Allen has the skill set suited for FD while Smoke Harris is better for the full-PPR format on DK.
Will Sheppard (VAND – DK $5,000, FD $8,500) – After increasing his production each of the last three seasons, Sheppard is primed for a huge senior season for the Commodores. Last year, he earned 116 targets but only caught 51.7% of those — which, to be fair, had a lot to do with the QB situation but also that most of his targets were downfield. Sheppard is the only WR on the DK slate we have projected for a 30%+ target share, which makes the price tag rather laughable when you consider the absolutely elite matchup Vandy has versus Hawaii. The only pushback we can provide is the strength of Hawaii’s team might actually be their secondary, especially with the addition of all-conference CB Cam Stone. However, Sheppard is just simply mispriced on DK, so we are not going to overthink this one.
