Thursday Night Football
Detroit @ Kansas City
Team Totals: Chiefs 30.5, Lions 24
Not only has Patrick Mahomes been the NFL’s best quarterback for the last five years, but he’s also been its best Opening Day quarterback. As noted on @ClevTa’s website, Mahomes’ Chiefs have exceeded their team total in each of their last five Week 1s while going 4-1 against the spread. Individually, Mahomes has banked league highs in Expected Points Added per play (0.54) and Success Rate (61%) in those contests. Kansas City is averaging 37.8 points per Week 1 game over the past half-decade. No team gave up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Lions last season, and DC Aaron Glenn’s pass-defense personnel doesn’t look much better entering 2023. … 2022 seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco emerged as the Chiefs’ lead back at midseason last year and from Weeks 10-18 netted a 126/633/4 (5.0 YPC) rushing line. He caught only 10 balls during that stretch, however. Pacheco did go off for 37/197/1 (5.3 YPC) rushing in three playoff games. Jerick McKinnon returns as Kansas City’s passing-down specialist and is just as RB2/flex playable as Pacheco. Although I expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be sparingly sprinkled in, I found it notable that CEH spent more first-team preseason time with Mahomes than any Chiefs running back. Edwards-Helaire offers some sleeper appeal on one-game DFS-tournament slates.
Mahomes to Travis Kelce stacks are obvious single-game DFS smashes. Only five 2022 defenses gave up more fantasy tight end points than Glenn’s, and only nine did so the year before. … The Chiefs’ wideout rotation could involve up to seven members. Deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling and slot man Skyy Moore stand to play the most snaps, although glue guy Justin Watson will mix in an annoying amount, and gadget type Kadarius Toney sounds ready for at least a minor role after missing all of camp following surgery to fix a partially torn meniscus.
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