Whenever you’re betting in an NFL awards market, keep in mind that it does not matter who you think will win. What matters is who are awards voters are going to vote for and why. In this year’s Who Wins and Why awards market analysis, we are looking back at the winners from the past 10 years in search of any patterns we can apply to our betting process. Let’s jump right in.
MVP
| Year | Player | Team | Record | Seed | Pass | Comp% | TD | Rush | TD | Rate | QBR | EPA | Odds |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 14-3 | 1 | 1st | 7th | 1st | 62nd | 36th | 2nd | 1st | 1st | +800 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 13-4 | 1 | 10th | 3rd | 4th | 129th | 49th | 1st | 1st | 5th | +1000 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 13-3 | 1 | 7th | 1st | 1st | 108th | T51 | 1st | 1st | 3rd | +3000 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 14-2 | 1 | 22nd | T8 | 1st | 6th | 14th | 3rd | 1st | 1st | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 12-4 | 1 | 2nd | 16th | 1st | 70th | T62 | 2nd | 1st | 1st | +3500 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | NE | 13-3 | 1 | 1st | 5th | 3rd | 170th |
– |
3rd | 3rd | 1st | +400 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 11-5 | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | 2nd | 108th |
– |
1st | 1st | 2nd | +7500 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | CAR | 15-1 | 1 | 16th | 28th | T2 | 31st | T2 | 8th | 11th | 5th | +5200 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 12-4 | 2 | 7th | 9th | 3rd | 71st | T51 | 2nd | 2nd | 3rd | +600 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | DEN | 13-3 | 1 | 1st | 3rd | 1st | 307th | T84 | 2nd | 1st | 1st | +600 |
MVP Takeaways
- Over the last 10 years, every NFL MVP has been a quarterback.
- Eight of those 10 quarterbacks played for the No. 1 seed in their conference.
- The other two played for the second seed.
- Each of those 10 MVPs finished within the top four in the league in touchdown passes.
- Nine of them were in the top three, while seven of them were in the top two.
- Aside from Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP run, the other nine were top three in QBR and rating.
- Each of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top five in EPA.
- Eight of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top three in EPA.
- Standard numbers like rushing yards, passing yards, completion percentage, or anything related to interceptions have been inconsistent factors among recent MVP winners.
- Half of those 10 quarterbacks had +3000 or longer MVP odds entering the season.
- The other five opened the year as favorites with +1000 odds or less.
- Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3), and now Patrick Mahomes (2) have each won multiple MVPs.
- Those four quarterbacks have collectively won seven of the last 10 MVP awards.
- Brady is the only MVP winner since Rich Gannon (2002) that was not taken in the first round.
- Carson Wentz “probably” wins the 2017 MVP if he doesn’t miss the final three games of the regular season due to injury.
- Adrian Peterson (2012) is the last non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
| Year | Player | Team | Pos | Round | Pick | Pass | TD | Int | Rush | TD | Rec | Yards | TD | Odds |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 1st | 10th |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
83 | 1103 | 4 | +2000 |
| 2021 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 1st | 5th |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
81 | 1455 | 13 | +1300 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 1st | 6th | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 |
– |
– |
– |
+800 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 1st | 1st | 3,772 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 |
– |
– |
– |
+150 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | 1st | 2nd |
– |
– |
– |
1307 | 11 | 91 | 721 | 4 | +155 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 3rd | 67th |
– |
– |
– |
728 | 8 | 81 | 826 | 5 | +5000 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 4th | 135th | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 |
– |
– |
– |
+900 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley | STL | RB | 1st | 10th |
– |
– |
– |
1106 | 10 | 21 | 188 | 0 | +1350 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham | NYG | WR | 1st | 12th |
– |
– |
– |
35 | 0 | 91 | 1305 | 12 | +2500 |
| 2013 | Eddie Lacy | GB | RB | 2nd | 61st |
– |
– |
– |
1178 | 11 | 35 | 257 | 0 | +800 |
Offensive Rookie of the Year Takeaways
- Over the last 10 years, three quarterbacks, four running backs, and three wide receivers have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
- Seven of the last 10 players to win OROY were first-round picks, including each of the last five.
- Each of the last five OROY winners were taken within the top 10 picks in the NFL Draft.
- Justin Herbert, Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Odell Beckham Jr. each had historically relevant rookie campaigns.
- Five of the last 10 OPOY winners were favorites with +900 odds or less.
- Four others were mid-range longshots between +1300 and +2500 odds.
- Alvin Kamara is the only true longshot of this group entering the year with +5000 odds.
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